Basic Strategy
HITSERIES FUND is operated in Singapore and Hongkong. The basic strategy is global macro and fundamental value/growth investment with event driven arbitrage.
Global Macro
watch supernation economics, equity, comodities and other alternatives. Size, Return, Liquidity. Ranging from startups to large cap.
Fundamental Analysis
Basic principle stands on fundamentals such as EPS, BPS, FCF and historical performance.
Event Driven
in the inntial growth stage or turnaround stage of the company. Predict biggest players behavior and find market inefficiency and price gap between outstanding price and intrinsic value.
Global macro
reserve currency, now USD, former British Pound is the biggest market in all asset class
Key economic indicator
Fed Funds Rate
Fed Reserve Target
Bank Prime Rate
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meetings
Inflationi indicators;
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Personal consumption expenditures index(PCE)/core PCE
Industrial Production Index
Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Manufacturing PMI
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Consumer Price Index(CPI)
Current Employment Statistics（CES）
Bonds Yield
US short term Treasury
10 year Treasury
20 year Treasury
Index Correlation
USD,EUR,RMB,GBP,JPY
Commodity(oil,gold, silver)
S&P500
Dow Jones
NASDAQ100
Russel2000
CSI500(China)
HSI(HONGKONG)
NIKKEI(JAPAN)
FTSE100
DAX
bitcoin/ethereum
Long term Treasury yield correlation
10 year yield up
When 10 year US Treasury is sold, its price goes down. Yield goes up. Morgage interest goes up and discourage consumers that make 70% of GDP. Corporate capital cost goes up and the anticipation of rising income make stock lower.
10 year yield down
When 10 year US Treasury is bought, its price goes up. Yield goes down. Morgage interest goes down and stimulate consumers that make 70% of GDP. Corporate capital cost goes down and the speculation of rising income make stock higher.
The young man knows the rules, the old man knows exceptions.
Event driven arbitrage
The term “Jewish Treasury Bills” is named after Benjamin Greaham and Warren Buffet, Charlie Munger strategy to buy event driven arbitrage when merger, downturn. Which was used for CocaCola, Activision Breazer, Daily Journal.
Here we introduce some of events that made us large profit.
Covid-19 Pandemic
30 January 2020 – 5 May 2023
Russian invasion of Ukraine
Feb 2022-
US China tech sunction
2018-
All US hedge funds and private equity draw China investment due to political reason. Berkshire Hathaway sold BYD, Softbank sold Alibaba
2023 US debt ceiling crisis
THE SILICON VALLEY BANK COLLAPSE
Mar 2023
China’s top-selling developer Collapse
2021 Evergrande
2023 CountryGarden
Supplichain change by innovation
EV, renewable energy, generative AI, robo taxi
Merger Arbitrage
Arbitrage among M&A or carveout IPO
A/H premium discount arbitrage
arbitrage between China A share and Hongkong H share premium/discount among stock price and dividend
Liquidity and leverage
there is constraints in economic growth. The biggest players income growth is capped at 19%
Liquidation
Asset liquidation is one of the most important value measurement of asset class
Leverage
Limited principal, optimal leverage
utilize Intelligence tools
Bloomberg
Morning star
Fintel
Finbox
Caixin
SCMP
utilize bankers, market makers
HSBC
UBS
SocieteGeneral
Goldmansachs
JP morgan
IMC
Performance
Here is some performance of us
Performance/size TANAAKK K.K.（Japan）
FY2013 started by US$10,000(1,000,000JPY)
FY2023 TANAAKK equity comes around US$50 million (5,000 times/500,000% capital gain)
Performance/size HITSERIES FUND (Singapore)
FY 2023 Carve-out from TANAAKK K.K., started by US$0.7 million(100,000,000JPY)
Asset class
We are viewing and culculating the world by size and liquidity. Here is some asset class of us that have important input and premise.
1
Reserve currency
M0,M1,M2,M3 for major currency like USD, EUR, CNY, GBP, JPY
2
Federal interest rate
Treasury yield and federal interest rate
3
National Bond Market
The largest national bond is US Treasury which have various kind of terms and conditions.
4
Corporate Debt Market
Debt market is more traditional than equity market. Which have solid fixed incom.
5
Commodities(mining)
Oil US$ 2 trillion(2022)
Coal $2 trillion(2022)
Steel $1.5 trillion(2022)
Cement $326.8billion(2022)
Iron ORE $283 billion(2022)
Gold $193 billion(2022)
Copper $183 billion(2022)
Alminium $153 billion(2002)
Diamond $94.96 billion(2022)
Nickel $69 billion(2022)
Zinc $31 billion(2022)
Titanium $28.59 billion(2022)
Mangan $25 billion(2022)
Graphite $23.13 billion (2022)
Sillicon $21 billion(2022)
Lead $16.74 billion(2022)
Palladium $16.5 billion(2022)
Platinum $7 billion(2022)
Lithium $ 7 billion(2022)
Cobalt $7 billion(2022)
Magnesium $4.39 billion(2022)
6
Commodities(food)
Soybeans
Maize（Coan）
Wheat
Sugarcane
Fertilizer
Rice
Coffee
Cocoa
Soy oil
Rapeseed/Canola oil
Palm oil
Sunflower oil
Olive oil
7
Commodities (Others)
Cotton
Live Cattle
Lean Hogs
Manufacturing Products
Semiconductor Products
8
Stock Market(Large Cap)
US
China
EUROPE
UK
Japan
Korea
Asia
9
Property Market
US commercial US$ 20 trillion(2022)
US residential US$ 30 trillion (2022)
10
Startups
US$ 1.8 trillion (2022)
Technology
Manufacturing
Biology/Chemical
Pharmaceutical
Mining
Agricultural
11
Other alternatives
Bitcoin, Ethereum